Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In terms of second serve performance, Elena Rybakina edges ahead with a recent win rate of 43.87%, compared to Aryna Sabalenka's 40.70%. Could this be a defining factor in predicting the winner? Statistically, it often is.
• When focusing on return game stats, Aryna Sabalenka has a slight advantage on opponents' second serve points, winning 47.97% compared to Elena Rybakina’s 47.55%. However, Aryna is more dominant on first serve returns as well, with 29.58% over Elena's 25.81%.
• How do these players perform under pressure? Elena Rybakina saves 57.30% of breakpoints, surpassing Aryna Sabalenka's 52.88%, which could be pivotal in crucial moments.
• Overall performance in the past year shows Aryna Sabalenka with a higher win rate at 84.00%, while Elena Rybakina stands at 71.43%. This suggests Aryna may have the upper hand in consistent performance.
• Sabalenka is strongest on Hard courts with a career win rate of 74%. On the contrary, while Rybakina is best on Grass at 74%, her performance on Hard sits at 69%.
• Both players frequently compete at the Masters level; however, Aryna Sabalenka has a higher win rate of 81.58% compared to Elena Rybakina's 65.63% at the same event level.
• In direct head-to-head encounters, Aryna Sabalenka leads the rivalry slightly, with 7 victories to Elena Rybakina's 5. However, Elena has won more sets, 17 to Aryna's 15, and their last meeting saw Elena winning decisively on a Hard court.
• For matches requiring a deciding set, Aryna Sabalenka demonstrates a remarkable advantage, winning 7 out of 8 times against Rybakina, indicating her strength in prolonged battles.
• Aryna Sabalenka has a better overall record in extreme pressure situations, winning 3 out of 4 tiebreaks against Elena Rybakina.
• Considering the quality of opponents, Sabalenka has faced more challenging competition with an average opponent rank of 47.77 compared to Rybakina’s 65.74 over the last year.
• If this match proceeds to a deciding set against all competition, Aryna Sabalenka has a 67% success rate, providing her with a significant edge over Elena Rybakina's 52% in similar scenarios.

Editorial Prediction (October 10, 2025, UTC):

As we anticipate the upcoming match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, the statistics provide a fascinating narrative. While Rybakina exhibits a slight edge in second serve points, Sabalenka's superior first return performance signals a potential advantage.

Under pressure, Rybakina's breakpoint-saving statistic is commendable, but Sabalenka's dominance in deciding sets and tiebreaks alongside her higher win rate over the past year might indicate her edge in critical match stages.

Moreover, Sabalenka's strength on Hard courts compared to Rybakina's performance on this surface suggests a likely Sabalenka advantage, especially given her consistency against higher-ranked opponents.

With all factors considered, Aryna Sabalenka appears to be the more likely victor in this encounter, mainly due to her formidable win rate in high-stakes scenarios and her overall competitive track record.